QUALCOMM (QCOM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Qualcomm is well positioned because its core patent portfolio in CDMA and OFDMA remains embedded across 3G, 4G, and 5G standards, while its chip business reaches nearly every premier handset maker and extends into RF-front end, automotive, and IoT. The bull case is strengthened by diversification: non-handset businesses now represent about 25% of sales versus 20% 3 years ago, and management still targets roughly one-third of QCT revenue from non-handset sources by FY29, supported by a $65B auto design-win pipeline and a higher FY29 auto goal of $10B. In datacenter AI, Qualcomm’s Amazon collaboration and other hyperscaler engagements validate its custom silicon and connectivity platform, with management targeting $5B of FY27 datacenter revenue and $15B by FY29, suggesting meaningful long-term growth beyond mobile.

Qualcomm is viewed negatively because its core handset franchise faces mounting pressure from Apple’s internal modems, with Apple modem business already 16% of sales and expected to decline 30% in FY26, while Samsung share is set to fall toward 75% in 2026. Weakness in premium Android demand, slower 5G adoption, and cyclical consumer spending could leave handset revenue flattish in FY26 and down mid single-digits in FY27 despite ASP tailwinds. Beyond smartphones, the outlook is constrained by limited early traction in Windows on ARM and a capital-intensive data center push that may dilute near-/medium-term operating margins, even as QCT and QTL margins run near 30% and 70%.