PTRN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Pattern Group Inc. has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving a 35% increase in the first half of 2025, which is notably higher than the growth rates observed in broader e-commerce marketplaces, including Amazon. The company is benefiting from strong macroeconomic trends and an increasing number of brand partners, with new brand partner revenue rising by 14% in the same period. Additionally, the company's net revenue retention (NRR) has peaked at 118% in the second quarter of 2025, indicating its effectiveness in maintaining and expanding its customer base among existing partners.

Pattern Group Inc faces challenges that could negatively impact its financial performance, particularly with pressure on its effective take rate leading to margin contraction and only modest EBITDA growth projections around 10%. The Company is expected to experience a contraction in Net Revenue Retention (NRR) from peak levels, influenced by shifts in ecommerce trends such as generative search, which may lead to a reduced revenue growth CAGR of 16% in a bear scenario. As competition intensifies and technological changes reshape the marketplace dynamics, EBITDA margins are anticipated to remain virtually flat, indicating a slowdown in sales growth and an ongoing struggle against dominant players in the ecommerce space, such as Amazon.