PRVA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Privia Health Group Inc. has demonstrated robust growth, achieving the addition of 125 providers in the fourth quarter of 2025, alongside a significant 9% sequential increase in fee-for-service practice collections, amounting to approximately $80 million. This momentum has been bolstered by favorable performance in the capitated Medicare Advantage segment and a value-based care portfolio, which together have driven record profitability. As the company anticipates sustained growth through increased provider additions and operational improvements, particularly in the Arizona market, its focus on reducing administrative burdens for physicians positions it favorably for continued financial success.

Privia Health Group Inc faces a challenging outlook due to anticipated declines in Medicaid enrollment, expected to decrease by 8%-10% on a same-store basis as re-determination activity follows the end of the public health emergency. This decline is projected to contribute to a sequential reduction in EBITDA, particularly following a strong performance in Q3. Additionally, the company is grappling with unfavorable seasonal trends, as typical quarter-over-quarter growth is expected to be disrupted, with an anticipated 2% decline instead of the usual increase expected in the upcoming quarter.