PROG Holdings (PRG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

PROG Holdings is viewed favorably because its core Progressive Leasing business appears to be reaccelerating, with 2Q 2026 marking its first GMV growth since 4Q 2024 and improving trends at key retail partners like Best Buy and Wayfair supporting 2H 2026 momentum. The company’s diversified platform is also strengthening through Four Technologies, which posted its 11th consecutive quarter of triple-digit-percentage GMV growth in 2Q 2026, while consolidated 1Q26 GMV rose more than 54% and leasing write-offs stayed flat at 7.3%, below expectations. With 2026 guidance raised to $3.1B of revenue, $356M of adjusted EBITDA, and $4.60 of adjusted EPS, the combination of growth, improving profitability, and lower leverage supports a constructive fundamental outlook.

PROG Holdings is viewed negatively because its core Progressive Leasing business is already showing softer demand, with 1Q26 GMV down 2% to $393M and revenue down 8% YoY to $597M on smaller portfolio balances. Although the 2Q 2026 write-off rate of 8.4% and 70 bps YoY increase appears manageable relative to full-year guidance, the company remains exposed to low-income consumer stress, regulatory pressure, competition, and merchant concentration risk. At 5.3x F2027 diluted EPS, the stock may look cheap, but that discount reflects real fragility in credit performance and a business model dependent on tightening underwriting when macro conditions worsen.