PROG Holdings (PRG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

PROG Holdings Inc has demonstrated impressive growth, with both quarterly gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenue increasing by an average of 198% and 382% year-over-year, respectively, since the first quarter of 2024. The company’s initiatives to enhance its platform have positioned it for significant scaling, particularly in the BNPL segment, which reported a 163% growth in GMV for the third quarter of 2025, reaching an annual run-rate of $652 million. With expectations of margin improvements driven by operational leverage and a resurgent core leasing business alongside expanding BNPL offerings, PROG is well-positioned for sustained financial growth.

PROG Holdings has faced significant challenges due to the loss of a key retail partner, resulting in an approximate $160 million reduction in annual Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and a 19% drop in active customer count. This decline has been compounded by weak consumer spending patterns, particularly in larger ticket items, prompting the company to adopt stricter underwriting standards to mitigate credit losses. The ongoing pressures on GMV and expectations of further weakness in credit conditions have led to a negative outlook for the core leasing business, underlying concerns about the company's growth prospects.