Post Holdings (POST) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Post Holdings Inc. is poised for a favorable future, largely due to its recent acquisition of 8th Avenue, which is projected to significantly enhance its EBITDA for fiscal 2026, even without including potential synergies. The acquisition represents an attractive purchase at roughly 7x EBITDA for approximately $115 million, supplemented by expected synergies that could yield further benefits. Additionally, with around $625 million in cash available as of March 31, 2025, the company retains financial flexibility for future investments or share repurchases, with the net debt/EBITDA ratio expected to see only a modest increase following the transaction.

Post Holdings Inc. has faced significant sales declines driven by various factors, including higher pricing elasticity impacts on Gravy Train, which contributed approximately a 2 percentage point hit, as well as a discontinuation of private label co-manufacturing, causing a further 3-4 percentage point decline. Additionally, the company reported weakness in the Nutrish brand, also contributing around a 2 percentage point decline, while its brand refresh is still in its early stages. These elements have prompted a revision of sales growth estimates from -4.0% to -8.5% and a decrease in the projected F3Q25 EBITDA from approximately $193 million to $184 million.