Pool (POOL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Pool is attractive because it is trading at trough multiples amid depressed new pool construction, with annualized new pool units around 60k versus a normalized 10-year average of roughly 80k, while the recurring maintenance business, about 65% of sales, continues to support earnings. The company has also been outperforming the market in CY25 and 1H26, helped by about 1% above-market growth in building materials and stable equipment share, suggesting its competitive position is stronger than feared. With sales force initiatives expected to take effect in 4Q and a longer-term path toward 4%-6% organic growth, ~30% gross margins, and midcycle EPS above $17.00, the installed-base model and operating leverage create compelling upside.

Pool is exposed to a demand profile that is vulnerable to macro stress, because 18% of pool industry spending is discretionary and a recession could quickly curb replacement and upgrade activity. Higher rates are also a key headwind, as they can slow home churn and reduce the affordability and availability of financing for repair-and-remodel spending, while unseasonably cold or wet weather can further suppress near-term sales. In addition, the business faces execution risk from sourcing, financing, or integrating future acquisitions, and competitive pressure from alternative leisure products could limit growth and margin resilience.