Planet Fitness (PLNT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Planet Fitness is supported by a differentiated high-volume, low-price model with more than 90% of clubs franchised, scale that exceeds its closest HVLP competitor by more than 4x, and 24/7 operating hours where available, all of which help sustain broad consumer appeal and franchisee demand. Its outlook is further strengthened by a largely predictable revenue mix from franchise royalties, fees, and corporate store membership dues, plus evidence of operating resilience as 2Q26 revenue beat consensus by 2.4%, SSS rose 1.7%, EBITDA beat by 1.0%, and adjusted EPS beat by 5.3% following $200m of repurchases. Looking ahead, the company’s long-term goal of 4,000+ domestic clubs versus more than 2,300 today, growing Black Card penetration to over 60% from 38% since 2010, and management’s focus on member growth, digital initiatives, and equipment placements provide multiple avenues for sustained revenue and earnings expansion despite near-term churn and macro pressure.

Planet Fitness is facing a fundamentally weaker near-term setup because same-store sales are expected to decelerate in 2H, with management’s approximately 1% FY comp guide implying close to flat growth in the back half and more than 100% of that comp improvement coming from rate rather than membership gains. The outlook is further pressured by softer net adds of about 700K in 1Q26 versus roughly 1M in 1Q25, elevated monthly attrition of 3.8%, and a marketing reset after messaging missed the core beginner-and-casual consumer, while competitive pricing pressure in key markets and the national $10/month promo introduce uncertainty around pricing power and could weigh on future rate realization. Although the business still benefits from a highly franchised model, 18M+ members, and improving Black Card mix at 67.9% in Q2, the pause in Black Card price increases, the expectation that churn stays above average through the rest of the year, and reduced FY26/FY27 estimates for revenue, EBITDA, and EPS all support a cautious fundamental view.