PACCAR (PCAR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

PACCAR is projected to experience business growth of 4–6% in the third quarter, driven by investments in capacity, service improvements, and increased shipping days in Europe, alongside a strong parts sales market. The company's FY2026 outlook anticipates a 5% year-over-year increase in North American Class 8 industry retail sales, with expectations of significant margin improvements and market share growth in the heavy-duty and medium-duty markets. Furthermore, parts sales have consistently exceeded management's expectations, showing a year-over-year increase, suggesting robust demand and resilience in PACCAR's diversified business segments.

PACCAR's stock outlook appears negative due to a significant decline in operating margins, with reported figures dropping to 8.3%, a decrease of 490 basis points compared to the previous year. Additionally, the company's new truck deliveries have fallen sharply by 18.8% in 2Q'25, totaling 39,300 units, alongside a projected further decline to 32-33K units in the upcoming third quarter, largely attributed to seasonal shutdowns and adjusted manufacturing rates. Furthermore, regional performance is variable, with a notable 34% decrease in North American deliveries, raising concerns regarding overall demand and market stability.