Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Occidental Petroleum is supported by a large resource base of 4.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent and 2025 production of 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with a mix that is roughly 74% oil and natural gas liquids, which should favor stronger margins. Its outlook is further strengthened by robust midstream and marketing income, including a record 2Q26 adjusted pre-tax income of $961MM and expectations that 3Q26 and 2026 guidance could again be exceeded on sulfur pricing, realizations, and operating leverage. Management also appears disciplined on capital allocation, increasing the dividend to $0.28/share while prioritizing debt reduction toward $10B and advancing a $4B sustainable cash flow improvement plan driven by lower costs, better well productivity, and reduced sustaining capital needs.

Occidental Petroleum is facing a weaker fundamental setup because its 3Q26 cash flow and production estimates were cut after pre-released realized oil, NGL, and gas prices and Gulf of America net sales volumes of 110 MBoped came in 8% below the midpoint of guidance due to a pipeline inspection issue. The business also showed volatility in international and midstream results, with 2Q international volumes at 205 MBoepd below guidance, 3Q Midstream EBIT guided to a sharp decline from 2Q’s $961MM, and well productivity trends reportedly declining on both a y/y and q/q basis. While it still has 4.6 billion barrels of proved reserves and 1.4 million boe/d of 2025 production, the outlook remains pressured by unhedged commodity exposure, soft 2027 capex guidance of $5.9B, and delays in Stratos commissioning.