Oxford Industries (OXM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Oxford Industries is supported by clear signs that Tommy Bahama is stabilizing, with sales growth returning over the past two quarters and the brand posting its first year-over-year revenue growth since F4Q23 in 1Q. Profitability is improving as gross margin expanded to 63.4% in 1Q and the company expects about 100 bps of gross margin expansion in FY26, helped by stronger DTC mix, better inventory discipline, and some tariff relief through refunds. Its dividend appears well covered by projected free cash flow of $100-$110M this year, while lower capex, debt reduction, and enterprise-wide cost savings should strengthen earnings power and support long-term value creation.

Oxford Industries is facing a fundamentally weaker earnings profile because Lilly Pulitzer’s assortment mistakes, reduced opening-price-point mix, and slower new-customer acquisition have driven about a $1.00 EPS drag this year, despite retention holding near 60% and management still expecting only a Spring ’27 reset. At the same time, Johnny Was remains a profit headwind, losing $10M in op profit in ’25 and still expected to narrow only to a $7M loss in ’26, while wholesale softness and underperforming stores suggest its turnaround will take longer. With FY26 revenue guidance cut to $1.43b-$1.470b, adj. EPS reduced to $1.60-$2.00, and gross margin pressured by a more promotional environment and higher tariff rates, the stock’s outlook stays cautious.