OneSpan Inc (OSPN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

OneSpan Inc's Digital Agreements segment demonstrated solid growth, with revenue increasing by 7% year-over-year to $16.7 million, accounting for approximately 29% of total revenue, while subscription revenue in this segment rose by 11%. The company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew by 10% year-over-year to reach $180 million, supported by a sequential increase in Net Revenue Retention (NRR) to 103%, indicating healthy customer engagement and retention. Additionally, the Software business, which now represents around 80% of total revenue, experienced a 12% increase in subscription revenue, and overall ARR from security solutions rose by 11% to $115.5 million, reflecting a positive trend in the company's core financial metrics.

OneSpan Inc. is experiencing financial challenges, as its guidance indicates a projected -3% year-over-year organic revenue decline alongside a mere ~5% year-over-year organic annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth. The company's fiscal year 2025 revenue expectations have been reduced to a range of $239M–$241M, down from previous estimates of $245M–$251M, primarily due to soft hardware demand and headwinds in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) regions. Following the Q3 earnings call, OneSpan's stock declined significantly by approximately 17%, reflecting concerns over reduced revenue and ARR guidance, particularly amid ongoing declines in hardware and security service expansions in the EMEA and Asia-Pacific regions.