OMDA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Omada Health Inc has recorded a remarkable total revenue growth of 49.5% year-over-year, driven by a significant increase in its member base, which reached 831,000 by the end of Q3 2025, exceeding estimates and representing a 52.8% growth. The company's gross profit margin showed promising improvement, with a notable expansion of 297 basis points year-over-year to 68.2%, attributed to program mix and enhanced efficiency from AI integration. With expectations of over 35% growth in FY25 and an approach towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven, Omada's strong clinical outcomes and expanding partnerships position the company favorably in the evolving digital health landscape.

Omada Health's financial outlook appears negative due to the persistent high level of adjusted operating expenses, which, despite a decline from 121.1% to 80.5% of revenue from FY'22 to FY'24, still raises concerns about profitability. Future projections suggest that average revenue per user (ARPU) will remain relatively flat, with potential seasonal fluctuations that could hinder revenue growth, especially if the demand for GLP-1 CareTracks diminishes due to safety issues or market dynamics. Furthermore, the risk of losing key partnerships and the potential for reduced enrollment amid economic downturns pose significant threats to Omada's long-term scalability and financial performance, reminiscent of Livongo’s challenges.