Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Olaplex Holdings Inc. is projected to achieve net sales of $426 million, reflecting a modest year-over-year growth of 0.8%, with anticipated high single-digit sales increases in the fourth quarter driven by the professional channel during holiday events. The direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel has shown significant improvement, representing 36.2% of sales, an increase from 32.8% the prior year, signaling a strengthening consumer direct engagement. Furthermore, the company is expected to enhance its adjusted EBITDA to $89.8 million, corresponding to a margin of 21.3%, indicating robust operational efficiency and profitability amid ongoing product innovation and strategic growth in international markets.

Olaplex Holdings Inc. has experienced a notable decline in its specialty retail segment, which fell 13.5% year-over-year to $36.9 million, resulting in a year-to-date sales drop of 6.8%. The company anticipates a high single-digit sales decline for Q3, primarily due to prior direct-to-consumer pull-forward effects and an uneven holiday shipment schedule. Furthermore, the forecast for operating margins is particularly concerning, with a projected decrease of over 1,200 basis points, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.1%, which significantly lags behind last year's margin of 36.3%.