Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Olaplex Holdings Inc is projected to achieve net sales of $426.0 million in 3Q25, reflecting a modest 0.8% year-over-year increase, with sales anticipated to grow in the high single digits during Q4, driven by the professional channel's active participation in holiday events and an early pipeline build for upcoming 2026 product innovations. The direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment demonstrated robust performance, contributing 36.2% to sales, an increase from 32.8% in the prior year, indicating a successful strategy in expanding this channel. Additionally, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of $89.8 million, translating to a margin of 21.3%, further highlighting its financial resilience and operational efficiency amid ongoing revenue growth in both domestic and international markets.

Olaplex Holdings Inc. experienced a significant decline in specialty retail revenue, falling 13.5% year-over-year, with year-to-date sales down 6.8%, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum despite some recent product innovation. The company is projected to face considerable operating margin pressure, with an anticipated adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.1%, down 1,340 basis points year-over-year, signaling a decrease in profitability. Additionally, the forecasted high single-digit sales decline for Q3 reflects the adverse impact of previous promotional strategies and a shift in holiday shipment distribution, further exacerbating concerns about the company's growth trajectory.