Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Olaplex Holdings Inc. is projected to achieve net sales of $426.0 million, reflecting a modest year-over-year increase of 0.8%, with significant revenue growth anticipated in the fourth quarter driven by the professional channel's engagement in holiday events and product innovations for 2026. The direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel has shown notable improvement, contributing 36.2% of sales, increasing from 32.8% in the previous year, indicating a positive trend in consumer engagement. Additionally, the company is expected to record adjusted EBITDA of $89.8 million, reflecting a margin of 21.3%, demonstrating a strong operational performance that supports a favorable financial outlook.

Olaplex Holdings Inc is experiencing a significant downturn in its specialty retail segment, which has declined by 13.5% year-over-year, contributing to an overall year-to-date sales decrease of 6.8%. The company is also facing considerable operating margin pressure, with expectations of a decline from last year's 36.3% margin to 24.1% this quarter, despite a slight improvement over consensus estimates. Furthermore, anticipated high single-digit sales declines in Q3, impacted by previous pull-forward effects from direct-to-consumer promotional events, point to continued challenges in revenue generation and profit margins.