Owens-Illinois (OI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

O-I Glass is benefiting from a non-volume-dependent 3-year Fit to Win program that targets $650 million of cumulative savings and could ultimately approach $1 billion, supporting a leaner cost base through SG&A cuts, productivity gains, and network optimization. Despite near-term pressure from European energy costs and price competition, the company still guides to 2026 EBITDA of $1.125-1.225 billion and expects about $1.45 billion in 2027, helped by roughly $150 million of F2W benefits and inflation-capturing purchase adjustment formulas on more than 50% of the business. The outlook is further strengthened by strong Americas execution, high-90% utilization, account gains across food, NABs, RTDs, beer, and spirits, and improving market tightness in Europe as plant rationalization and closures lift operating rates.

O-I Glass is facing a weak fundamental setup as soft glass volumes across beer, wine, spirits, and NAB/CSD limit organic growth, while secular shifts toward cans and poorer consumer sentiment keep demand under pressure. The company also faces meaningful pricing and cost headwinds from European competitor oversupply, very high energy prices, and raw material inflation, with FY26 energy headwinds estimated at $225 million to $250 million and EBITDA held at $255 million in Q3, $1 billion in FY26, and $1.15 billion in FY27. With less deleveraging than expected, 3.8x net debt, and free cash flow likely negative in FY26 and barely breakeven in FY27, the balance sheet and cash generation profile leave limited room for a sustained re-rating.