Owens-Illinois (OI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

O-I Glass is positioned to benefit from a durable operational turnaround driven by its 3-year, $650M Fit to Win program, which is non-volume dependent and focused on SG&A cuts, productivity gains, network optimization, and unlocking trapped furnace capacity. In the Americas, performance is strong with 1Q EBIT the best in more than eight years and utilization in the upper 90%s, while Europe should improve as rationalization, plant closures, and market tightness lift operating rates from the low 90%s toward the high 90%s. Despite 2026 EBITDA guidance of $1.125-1.225bn, the company still expects about $1.45bn in 2027 and could approach $1bn in total savings, supported by inflation pass-through formulas, moderating input costs, and exposure to beer, wine, spirits, food, and NAB demand.

O-I Glass is burdened by a weak fundamental setup as European oversupply and higher energy costs are pressuring pricing and margins, with a competitor’s new furnace in Italy adding about 300 tons per day and roughly +2.5% to annual regional supply. The company also faces $225-$250M of FY26 energy headwinds, including a $150M European contract reset and $75-$100M of ME-related inflation, while glass demand remains soft in alcohol and NAB/CSD end markets because beer, wine, and spirits volumes are under pressure. With secular share loss to beverage cans, high leverage, variable-rate debt, and ongoing raw material and FX risks, its earnings power looks vulnerable even if some Q3 and Q4 energy exposure is hedged.