OBK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Origin Bancorp has demonstrated a solid financial performance, with a notable increase in net interest margin (NIM), which rose 17 basis points quarter-over-quarter to reach 3.61%, significantly surpassing expectations. The bank experienced approximately 20% growth in loan originations during the first nine months of 2025, supported by the NIM expansion and effective asset yield management, which increased to 5.89%. Additionally, the anticipated further upside of 10-15 basis points in NIM through loan and deposit repricing reflects the bank's potential for sustained profitability and revenue growth in the coming years.

Origin Bancorp's outlook appears negative due to a significant decline in end-of-period loans, which dropped by 7.7% LQA or $147 million, contrasting sharply with a prior quarter's increase. Additionally, the guidance for full-year 2025 has been reduced to flat from previously projected low-single-digit growth, influenced by a decline in the third quarter, signaling potential challenges in generating revenue. Heightened risks, including credit quality deterioration, NIM compression, and the implications of overpaying in potential acquisitions, further suggest a challenging financial landscape ahead for the bank.