NEXTracker Inc (NXT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nextpower has demonstrated a robust financial outlook with an upward revision of its FY26 revenue guidance, now projected between $3.275 billion and $3.4785 billion, reflecting a 1.5% increase from previous estimates, and overall EBITDA expectations have also risen by approximately 2% to a range of $775 million to $815 million. The company anticipates tracker revenue growth at an implied four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 5%, while non-tracker revenue is expected to soar at a 40% CAGR through FY30, indicating significant diversification and potential for future earnings. Furthermore, Nextpower's substantial backlog of nearly $5 billion underpins its strong growth prospects and aligns well with its manufacturing capabilities and benefits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Nextpower's revenue guidance for FY'27 and FY'30 fell below both prior estimates and consensus expectations, indicating potential challenges in meeting market expectations. Despite a projected increase in adjusted free cash flow, the anticipated contraction in revenue may reflect decreasing demand and intensified competition, leading to pricing pressures and a risk of margin erosion. Additionally, the forecasted adjusted EBITDA for FY'30 was significantly lower than prior consensus, highlighting concerns regarding profitability and operational efficiency moving forward.