NEXTracker Inc (NXT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nextpower is favored because it combines market-leading scale as the world’s largest solar tracker supplier with a broadening platform that extends into foundations, eBOS, power conversion, software, and energy storage, increasing revenue opportunity per project and supporting higher-margin mix over time. Its outlook is strengthened by roughly three to four years of U.S. revenue visibility from safe harboring, a ~35% global tracker share, a backlog above $5bn, and international growth that could become the main engine as demand in Europe, the Middle East, India, and Africa expands. Financially, the view is reinforced by estimates of FY27 revenue at $4.69B and Adj. EBITDA at $973m, rising to FY30 revenue of $7.06B and Adj. EBITDA of $1.63B, alongside $500m of share buybacks and about $1b of net cash that enhance flexibility for accretive M&A.

Nextpower is facing a more fragile setup as policy risk, especially any reversal or dilution of IRA/45X benefits, could directly reduce the $47–82 million per quarter of FY2026 EBITDA support while also weakening project economics and demand. Its aggressive diversification into power conversion, BESS, and services may improve long-term optionality, but nearly 10 acquisitions in 18 months, plus Q4 FY2026 R&D up 77% year over year and opex up 51%, raise integration and execution risk. The stock also looks vulnerable to concentration, with 77% of FY2026 revenue from the US, while rising competition, dual-sourcing pressure, and decelerating international growth could squeeze margins and limit multiple support.