NEXTracker Inc (NXT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nextpower demonstrated strong financial performance in the third quarter, with a 63% year-over-year increase in U.S. revenue, which constituted 81% of total revenue, resulting in a total of $909 million and exceeding consensus estimates by approximately 12%. The company forecasts promising growth rates, with tracker revenue projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 5% and non-tracker revenue at approximately 40% through fiscal year 2030, supported by significant international momentum, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Additionally, Nextpower's backlog surpassing $5 billion and its strategic positioning to meet increasing localization requirements in utility-scale solar projects further enhances its prospects for sustained growth and profitability.

Nextpower's revenue guidance for FY'27 indicates anticipated figures that are approximately 3% lower than previous internal estimates and 6% below sell-side consensus, highlighting potential challenges in meeting market expectations. Furthermore, for FY'30, while adjusted free cash flow is projected to be strong, overall revenue and adjusted EBITDA are poised to fall short of prior consensus expectations, reflecting a projected adjusted EBITDA margin of only ~23%. The company’s shift in potential comparisons to diversified electrical equipment firms signals a need for careful consideration of its growth trajectory and competitive positioning in the market, which may contribute to investor concerns.