NEXTracker Inc (NXT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nextpower's stock outlook is positively influenced by its increased fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance, which has been raised by approximately 1.5%, now projected between $3.275 billion and $3.4785 billion, marking a 2.3% improvement from the original forecast. The company has also increased its EBITDA guidance by about 2%, estimating it to range between $775 million and $815 million, reflecting an 8% rise from prior estimates. Furthermore, with a robust backlog nearing $5 billion and expectations for significant growth in both tracker and non-tracker revenue, Nextpower demonstrates strong fundamentals that support its optimistic growth trajectory.

Nextpower's outlook is negatively impacted by management's guidance for FY'27 revenue, projected at approximately $3.7 billion, which is around 3% below prior estimates and 6% below sell-side consensus. Additionally, while adjusted free cash flow is expected to be strong at approximately $600 million, FY'30 revenue guidance of $5.2 billion is also lower than anticipated, with adjusted EBITDA forecasted to be about 13% below prior consensus, indicating potential margin contraction. Furthermore, the company faces increasing competition that threatens to compress prices, diminish market share, and may lead to an anticipated decline in overall demand exceeding 20%.