
NXRT Stock Forecast & Price Target
NXRT Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
NexPoint Residential Tr is supported by a resilient cash-return profile, highlighted by a 10.7% projected dividend yield and a recent surprise dividend increase, with no dividend cut modeled until 4Q27. The company’s upgraded-unit program also shows strong operating leverage, as 459 full and partial upgrades in 2Q26 produced 255 leased upgraded units at an average monthly rent premium of $90 and a 23% ROI on total cost. Valuation appears favorable relative to forward fundamentals, with the stock trading at 8.2x 2026E FFO and 11.8x 2026E FAD versus implied 13.5x 2027E FFO and 20.4x 2027E FAD.
Bears say
NexPoint Residential Tr is under pressure from a highly leveraged balance sheet, with net debt/EBITDA near 12x and most debt effectively floating, making earnings highly sensitive as interest rates rise. The company’s same-store fundamentals are weakening, with 2Q26 NOI down 2.9% year over year, rental income down 1.4%, and operating expenses up 2.4%, while 2026 FFO is expected to slip to $2.23 per share and 2027 normalized FFO to $1.34 per share. These trends, combined with unhedged refinancing exposure, a 10.7% dividend that is not expected to be covered by cash flow, and concentration in competitive Southern and Southwestern markets, support a bearish view.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of NexPoint Residential Trust and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
NXRT Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
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