NXRT Stock Forecast & Price Target

NexPoint Residential Tr is supported by a strong dividend profile, with a 10.7% projected dividend yield and a late-year dividend increase that signals management confidence in cash flow durability. The company’s 2Q26 rehab activity also highlights a meaningful internal growth driver, as 459 full and partial upgrades produced 255 leased upgraded units, a $90 average monthly rent premium, and a 23% return on total cost. Despite trading at just 8.2x 2026E FFO and 11.8x 2026E FAD versus 13.5x 2027E FFO and 20.4x 2027E FAD, the shares appear undervalued relative to normalized earnings power.

NexPoint Residential Tr is facing weakening fundamentals as 2026 normalized FFO is projected at $2.41 per share, down 13.4% year over year, with same-store revenue expected to slip 0.4% and SSNOI to fall 2.3%. The company’s 2Q26 same-store NOI declined 2.9% year over year, rental income fell 1.4%, and higher expenses and interest costs are pressuring results just as most current hedges expire in the back half of this year, primarily on 9/1/26. Leverage remains materially above peers, liquidity is only about $137 million, and the stock’s 57% discount to NAV alongside 8.2x 2026E FFO suggests investors are pricing in elevated risks from supply, geographic concentration, and higher rates.