NRGV Stock Forecast & Price Target

Energy Vault Hldgs is benefiting from a decisive shift toward a vertically integrated storage and AI infrastructure model, highlighted by the 1.25 GW hyperscaler agreement that is expected to generate $500 million to $600 million of revenue through the end of 2027. Backlog rose $650 million sequentially to about $2.0 billion, with roughly 40% positioned for near-term conversion and 60% tied to longer-duration owned-asset revenue, improving visibility into 2026 and 2027 while supporting the re-rating thesis. Revenue in 2Q26 reached $17.4 million, up 104% year over year, gross margin improved to 31.0%, and management lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $270 million to $310 million and gross margin guidance to 20% to 25%, signaling stronger execution and demand.

Energy Vault Hldgs is facing a fundamentally fragile setup despite 2Q26 revenue of $17.4M, because the 104% Y/Y growth still masked a sequential decline from $21.9M tied to the timing of Australia-based BESS deliveries, highlighting lumpy execution and customer concentration risk. Gross profit improved to $5.4M with a 31.0% margin, but adjusted EBITDA loss widened to ($17.0M) as higher opex from commercial and operational team build-out outpaced scale benefits, while non-GAAP EPS of ($0.15) also missed consensus. Its outlook is further pressured by tariff and sourcing risk, including a 155.9% U.S. tariff burden on B-Vault products, plus financing dependence under the Asset Vault strategy, which could amplify margin compression, delays, and capital-market risk.