NRGV Stock Forecast & Price Target

Energy Vault Hldgs is benefiting from a rapidly expanding $2.0B backlog, up $650M sequentially and 107% Y/Y, with roughly 40% expected to convert over the next 12 to 18 months and 60% tied to higher-margin recurring owned-and-operated projects. The 1.25 GW hyperscaler AI contract, expected to contribute $500 to $600 million of revenue through the end of 2027, materially improves visibility, validates the company’s differentiated integrated power, storage, and software platform, and supports the shift toward a vertically integrated storage IPP model. Operational momentum is also improving, as Q2 revenue rose 104% Y/Y to $17.4 million, gross margin reached 31.0%, and cash and cash equivalents increased to $148 million, while 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $270 million to $310 million and GAAP gross margin guidance to 20% to 25%.

Energy Vault Hldgs is facing a fundamentally fragile setup because 2026 revenue guidance of $270 million to $310 million still implies a steep second-half ramp, with roughly $251 million needed in 2H26 versus $39.3 million in 1H26, making execution highly dependent on delayed project timing in Australia. Although 2Q26 revenue rose 104% year over year to $17.4 million and gross margin improved to 31.0%, adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $(17.0) million as opex rose, underscoring that growth is still coming with meaningful operating leverage and profitability risk. The company also carries outsized tariff, sourcing, financing, and technology risks, including a 155.9% U.S. tariff burden on B-Vault products, $300 million preferred equity support that does not eliminate capital needs, and a strategy shift that requires substantial upfront funding for asset ownership.