NOV (NOV) Stock Forecast & Price Target

NOV is viewed favorably because its Energy Equipment segment has a strong $4.4 billion backlog and 1Q26 orders of $520 million, supporting near-term revenue visibility even after a 0.8x book-to-bill. Management and analysts expect disruptions from the Iran War to normalize, with 2Q26 EBITDA guided at $185-215 million and 2026 EBITDA forecast around $904-905 million before a stronger 2027 recovery to roughly $1.1 billion. The bull case is further reinforced by NOV’s global scale, solid free cash flow generation, and leverage to an expected capital equipment upcycle in 2027 driven by offshore reactivations, unconventional activity, and tighter service capacity.

NOV is facing deteriorating near-term fundamentals as 2Q26 guidance calls for EBITDA of $185-215MM, down 6-8% year over year on weaker revenue, with Energy Products and Services EBITDA falling 24% year over year and Energy Equipment EBITDA also declining. The negative outlook is reinforced by exposure to prolonged Iran war risks, especially since NOV derives about 15-20% of revenue from the Middle East and its product-based model is vulnerable to transportation cost inflation that is hard to pass through quickly. With slower activity and utilization, reduced fixed-cost absorption, and risks from North American drilling delays, offshore recovery weakness, and customer capital discipline, the business faces pressure on both margins and cash generation.