
NOG Stock Forecast & Price Target
NOG Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
The analysis indicates a strategic shift in Northern Oil & Gas Inc.'s capital allocation, moving to a spending range of $250-300 million to support growth through FY26, despite a modest decline in front month WTI prices of 6% year-to-date. Additionally, the company is projected to maintain a robust reinvestment rate of 79% in FY26, which significantly exceeds peer medians of less than 60%. Furthermore, the anticipated leverage ratio of 1.6x at annualized 4Q26 EBITDA positions the company favorably compared to its peers, whose leverage metrics are notably lower at 0.9x.
Bears say
The financial outlook for Northern Oil & Gas has been negatively impacted by a downward revision in production estimates, with projected FY26 oil production declining to 73.9 mbbls/d, significantly lower than earlier forecasts of ~84 mbbls/d. Additionally, the company anticipates a sequential decline in production for Q3 FY25, with total production estimates reduced to 75.6 mbbls/d and 132 mboe/d from previous estimates, exacerbating concerns regarding future output. Furthermore, despite expected EV/FCF yields of 11.9% in FY25 and 9.2% in FY26, these figures still fall short when compared to the SMID peer group averages of 13.3% and 15.9%, indicating a potentially unfavorable market position.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Northern Oil and Gas and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
NOG Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
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