
NOG Stock Forecast & Price Target
NOG Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
Northern Oil & Gas has demonstrated a significant shift in its capital expenditure strategy, pivoting from an anticipated spending of $250-300 million aimed at driving growth in FY26, while maintaining resilience despite a year-to-date decline of only 6% in front month WTI crude oil prices. The company is projected to achieve a robust reinvestment rate of 79% in FY26, indicating a strong commitment to growth and expansion within its operations. Furthermore, Northern Oil & Gas is expected to maintain leverage at 1.6x annualized EBITDA by 4Q26, which is notably higher than its peer medians, reflecting its aggressive growth focus and competitive positioning in the energy sector.
Bears say
Northern Oil & Gas is projected to experience a significant decrease in oil production, with estimates for FY26 revised down to 73.9 mbbls/d, compared to initial expectations of around 84 mbbls/d. The company's estimated EV/FCF yield for FY25 and FY26 at 11.9% and 9.2%, respectively, is notably lower than the SMID peer group averages of 13.3% and 15.9%, suggesting less attractiveness in comparison to competitors. Additionally, the expectation of sequential production decline in 3Q25 and stagnation in 4Q25 further contributes to a negative outlook regarding the company's performance in the near term.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Northern Oil and Gas and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
NOG Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
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