NMRA Stock Forecast & Price Target

Neumora Therapeutics is viewed positively because navacaprant appears meaningfully de-risked in Phase 2 and could become a differentiated treatment for MDD, with US sales potential of $750M in 2028 and $3B at peak, while the BPD readout in 2H25 adds another near-term catalyst. Beyond the lead asset, the company has an extensive pipeline with first- or best-in-class potential across NMRA-215, NMRA-511, and other programs, supporting a broad multi-asset growth story. The bullish case is reinforced by a present value framework tied to 5x the 2035 risk-adjusted revenue estimate of $977M, though regulatory, commercial, and dilution risks remain because no products are approved yet.

Neumora Therapeutics is facing a materially weaker fundamental outlook after discontinuing navacaprant development, since the KOASTAL-2/3 readout missed both the primary endpoint on MADRS and the key secondary endpoint on SHAPS. The failure removes a major value driver from the model, while the company’s 35% workforce reduction signals a forced right-sizing to a mid-stage biotech and only partially offsets the setback through about $10 million in annualized savings. With navacaprant-related sales and costs stripped out, the investment case looks more dependent on an early-stage pipeline of seven clinical and preclinical programs, which increases execution and development risk.