NIQ Stock Forecast & Price Target

NIQ Global Intelligence has demonstrated significant financial improvement, with pro forma EBITDA margins expanding by 550 basis points to 18.5%, alongside an increase from approximately 13% in 2020 to an estimated 21.25% by the midpoint of the 2025 guidance. The company projects a year-over-year revenue growth of 4.2-4.4% in the third quarter, alongside an expected EBITDA of $202-$204 million, reflecting a robust 13-14% increase year-over-year. Additionally, organic growth has reached a solid mid-single-digit pace, supported by pricing tailwinds, product innovation, and expansion into adjacent markets, suggesting a positive trajectory for future earnings quality and cash flow conversion.

NIQ Global Intelligence PLC currently faces significant challenges that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock. Key issues include a structural EBITDA margin that is lower than comparable companies in the information services sector, coupled with an organic revenue growth rate that is below industry expectations, indicating potential difficulties in achieving robust financial performance. Additionally, the company is navigating cash conversion headwinds, elevated interest expenses, and ongoing restructuring costs, which may hinder growth potential and investor confidence despite anticipated improvements in leverage metrics in the coming years.