Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nasdaq's positive outlook is supported by a notable 17% year-over-year increase in index revenue, significantly bolstered by a 25% rise in average ETP assets under management, reaching approximately $663 billion. The company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of around 9% year-over-year, coupled with a strong SaaS revenue growth of 12%, highlights the successful performance of its Capital Access Platform segment, which is positioned to benefit from an improving capital market environment. Furthermore, Nasdaq's gross leverage ratio improved to 3.2x, reflecting strong free cash flow generation that facilitated the repayment of $400 million in maturing bonds, underscoring solid financial management and a favorable debt profile.

The financial analyst outlines a negative outlook on Nasdaq's stock primarily due to a projected approximate 10% reduction in FY26E earnings per share (EPS), linked to a slower-than-expected recovery in capital markets and subdued IPO activity. Key risks contributing to this outlook include ongoing challenges with integrating newly acquired technologies, continued low trading volumes, and potential regulatory changes that could deter trading activity, particularly concerning proposed financial transaction taxes in the European Union. Additionally, the analyst highlights that a 5% fluctuation in EPS estimates could directly affect Nasdaq’s overall price target, indicating sensitivity to market conditions.