Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nasdaq has demonstrated significant growth in its revenue streams, particularly with a 17% year-over-year increase in Index revenue, driven by a 25% rise in average Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) Assets Under Management (AUM), which reached approximately $663 billion. Additionally, the company achieved a solid annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth rate of approximately 9%, with Software as a Service (SaaS) revenue growing by 12% year-over-year, indicating strong momentum in its technology offerings. Nasdaq's ongoing improvements in capital access segments, alongside robust free cash flow generation allowing for debt reduction, contribute to a positive outlook for future performance as macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook for Nasdaq's stock primarily due to anticipated challenges in capital market activities, including a projected ~10% reduction in FY26E EPS linked to sluggish IPO recovery and slower growth of the Adenza segment, which impacts debt repayment expectations. Key risks identified include persistent weakness in the IPO market and elevated company delistings, along with potential difficulties in integrating recent acquisitions into Nasdaq's operations and regulatory uncertainty causing delays in client decision-making. Additionally, the consideration of a financial transaction tax by the European Commission could further threaten trading volumes, compounding the negative implications for Nasdaq's performance.