National CineMedia (NCMI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

National CineMedia Inc. is positioned to benefit from a rebound in cinema attendance, which is expected to attract increased advertiser attention and boost ad bookings starting in Q3 2025. The company has made significant enhancements in its targeting capabilities and ad servicing, particularly for local campaigns, which are anticipated to facilitate market share gains over the next two years. Additionally, the strategic shift of advertising dollars from traditional media to targeted platforms like cinema, combined with NCM's commitment to returning capital to shareholders, underscores a positive long-term outlook for the company.

National CineMedia's fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $91.0-98.0 million reflects a miss compared to prior forecasts and indicates only approximately 10% growth at the midpoint, highlighting potential financial weakness. The anticipated impact from the AMC renewal is projected to reduce EBITDA margins by 150-250 basis points, and despite efforts to harmonize inventory, concerns remain about the effectiveness of this strategy in sustaining profitability. Additionally, while attendance is expected to rise by 30% year-over-year, a significant decline of 20% in revenue per attendee suggests deeper issues related to advertising revenue generation amidst a softer film slate and timing misalignments in advertising spend.