National CineMedia (NCMI) Stock Forecast & Price Target

National CineMedia Inc. (NCM) is poised for growth as cinema attendance rebounds, leading to increased advertiser interest from Q2 and further ad bookings anticipated in Q3. The company has enhanced its targeting capabilities and ad servicing for local campaigns, which is expected to facilitate market share gains over the next two years. Additionally, NCM stands to benefit from a shift of advertising dollars from traditional linear TV to more targeted mediums such as cinema, while also demonstrating a commitment to returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

National CineMedia is projected to achieve fourth-quarter revenue of $91.0-98.0 million, reflecting a growth rate of nearly 10% at the midpoint of guidance; however, this figure falls short of prior forecasts, indicating potential challenges ahead. The expected impact of the AMC renewal is anticipated to negatively affect EBITDA margins by 150-250 basis points, further muddling the company’s fiscal outlook amid efforts to harmonize inventory for improved revenue generation. Additionally, while attendance is expected to rise by 30% year-over-year, a significant decline of 20% in per attendee revenue, coupled with a softer film slate, underscores a troubling trend that could hinder overall financial performance.