Nabors Industries (NBR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nabors Industries is attractive because its Lower-48 momentum is accelerating, with the U.S. rig outlook raised from about 63 to 69 rigs and market share rising to 12% versus 11% in 2025, while dayrates are expected to improve from the low-$30k/day range toward the mid-$30k/day range. International Drilling remains the core growth engine, with the year-end 2026 rig target unchanged at 101 and additional SANAD newbuilds, reactivated rigs, and Latin American additions supporting volume growth and better utilization. Fundamentally, the company is showing resilient profitability and cash flow discipline, posting adj. EBITDA of $205MM, maintaining capex guidance of $730-760MM, and signaling it can exceed full-year FCF guidance as higher EBITDA, working capital optimization, and asset-base improvements flow through.

Nabors Industries is facing a weak near-term fundamental setup because 2Q26 EBITDA was cut 3% to $215MM, International Drilling margins were lowered to $17,480/day, and lingering Middle East logistical disruptions are expected to reduce 2Q guidance by $6-8MM. Despite a solid U.S. land drilling franchise and a competitive international joint venture, the business remains pressured by a leveraged balance sheet with about $2.0Bn in maturities over the next seven years, which limits flexibility and worsens the risk/reward profile. The company’s modest 2Q26 free cash flow guidance of $10MM, $180-190MM of capex, and exposure to excess drilling capacity, regulation, and energy-transition risks support a cautious outlook.