MZTI Stock Forecast & Price Target

The Marzetti is supported by a fundamentally improving margin profile, as 4QF26 marked a 12th straight quarter of gross margin expansion and management now expects about 100 bps of full-year gross margin expansion driven by productivity savings, favorable commodity conditions, and Bachan’s accretion. Even though 3QF26 results missed on adjusted net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS at $451.8 million, $66.9 million, and $1.43, the business still showed resilient cost control, and the Retail segment should benefit from innovation while Foodservice continues to grow behind select national chain restaurant customers. The acquisition of Bachan’s adds a scarce, fast-growing sauce platform with about $87 million of CY25 net revenue, more than 25% sales growth, and over 50% TDP growth, giving the company a high-quality branded asset with meaningful distribution runway, cross-channel opportunities, and potential for additional synergies.

The Marzetti is facing a mixed fundamental backdrop where operational strengths in frozen bakery and select foodservice accounts are not enough to offset broader softness in its core retail business, as 3QF26 consolidated net sales fell 1.0% to $453.4 million and adjusted sales missed both estimate and Street expectations. Retail, the larger segment, declined 3.2% to $233.8 million amid a 5.6% drop in pounds shipped, reflecting category weakness and reduced club channel demand, while volume/mix was a 120 bps headwind that only partly offset 30 bps of pricing. Although leverage remains manageable at about 0.6x TTM adjusted EBITDA with $25.1 million of cash and $199.3 million of debt, operating cash flow weakened in 4QF26 to $55.2 million from $88.2 million a year earlier, underscoring that earnings quality and top-line momentum are under pressure despite a record FY26 operating cash flow of $283.8 million.