MZTI Stock Forecast & Price Target

The Marzetti is supported by a resilient business mix, with Retail as the largest segment and Foodservice adding diversification through strong national accounts such as Chick-fil-A, Domino’s, and Taco Bell. Its 4QF26 performance showed a 7.4% increase in gross profit to a record $114.0 million, 15.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, and 12 consecutive quarters of gross margin improvement, underscoring disciplined execution across procurement, manufacturing, value engineering, and distribution. Looking ahead, the acquisition of Bachan’s, which is growing more than 25% and expanded retail distribution rapidly, together with an expected ~100 bps of FY27 gross margin expansion and positive segment margin outlooks, supports a constructive long-term view.

The Marzetti is facing a negative setup because the Cyclospora outbreak created a roughly 250 bps sales headwind in 1QF27, with both Retail and Foodservice pressured and Olive Garden dressings still down about 6% after a partial recovery. Its exposure to concentrated customers heightens risk, as Chick-fil-A represented 30% of FY26 Foodservice sales and Walmart 18% of consolidated net sales, leaving results vulnerable to any demand or operating disruption. On top of that, inflation in open-market ingredients, labor shortages and higher labor costs, plus single-site and third-party production dependence, make margin recovery and supply continuity harder to sustain.