Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vail Resorts is attractive on a fundamental basis because its shares trade in the bottom third of a historical 6-21x one-year forward EV/EBITDA range, creating an appealing risk/reward profile while the company still retains pricing power, including Epic pass increases above inflation. Its long-term outlook is supported by strong supply-demand fundamentals, a high-income and loyal customer base, and essentially zero new ski-resort supply, which should help stabilize visitation and support multiple mean reversion. Near-term challenges from low snowfall, early Australia closures, and softer Epic Pass trends are real, but solid North America summer demand and a projected +1% FY27E Resort Adj. EBITDA guide beat suggest resilience.

Vail Resorts is facing a weakening fundamental backdrop as 2026/2027 pass sales through September 18th decelerated to about down 12% y/y in units and 8% in sales dollars, while Days sold also slipped to -6% y/y, signaling softer demand and persistent sentiment damage from last season’s poor snow conditions. The company’s FY4Q26 results were only modestly resilient, with revenue up 2.5% y/y to $278M and EBITDA at -$122M, but management still lowered 2026 CAPEX guidance to $229M-$234M and the updated FY2027 EBITDA projection was cut to $819M from $854M, underscoring pressure on earnings momentum. With a high fixed-cost resort model, exposure to macro travel weakness, and weather/climate volatility that can sharply impair margins and visitation, the stock’s risk-reward remains negative despite some potential weather-related upside.