Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vail Resorts is attractive because its shares trade in the bottom third of the historical 6-21x one-year forward EV/EBITDA range, creating a favorable risk/reward profile while the company retains pricing power through Epic pass increases above inflation. The fundamentals also look resilient, as strong U.S. summer demand and Epic Australia pass sales of +26%/31% year over year in units/dollars help offset weather-related pressure from an unusually weak Australia ski season that cut EBITDA expectations to ($130.6M). Long term, the company benefits from strong supply-demand dynamics, a wealthy and loyal customer base, and essentially zero new ski resort supply, which supports margin durability and multiple mean reversion.

Vail Resorts is facing a deteriorating fundamental setup as 2026/2027 pass sales through September 18th slowed further, with units down about 12% year over year, sales dollars down about 8%, and Days sold down 6%, signaling weaker early demand and soft booking pace. Management’s FY2027 total adjusted EBITDA guide of $795-$861 million, midpoint $828 million, sits slightly below consensus and reflects that higher resort net revenue and a 26.9% EBITDA margin still may not fully offset inflationary pressure, weather uncertainty, and lingering snow-condition headwinds. With a high fixed-cost base, lowered 2026 capex to $229-$234 million, and ongoing risks from climate change, macro softness, and pass maturity, earnings leverage appears vulnerable if visitation or ancillary spending underperform.