Merck (MRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Merck & Co is viewed favorably because its pipeline is producing multiple late-stage wins that could offset Keytruda’s eventual loss of exclusivity, led by intismeran autogene and sacituzumab tirumotecan, both of which showed meaningful efficacy signals in melanoma and lung or endometrial cancer. The company also has underappreciated growth drivers in cardiopulmonary disease and infectious diseases, including Winrevair, enlicitide, and HIV assets with Ph3 success, while other revenues are expected to rise sharply in 2H26 on a revenue hedging program and a $150MM milestone in 4Q26. Financially, the business benefits from a large and diversified base, with 53% of 2025 sales from US human health, and the outlook supports at least mid-single digit earnings growth through the end of the decade.

Merck & Co is facing a bearish setup because its growth engine remains overly reliant on Keytruda replacement efforts while multiple pipeline assets carry meaningful clinical and commercial execution risk. The company also absorbed a $400MM pre-tax charge, or about $0.13 per share, from the SciBrunch license agreement, and 3Q26 Ohtuvayre sales were cut by more than $30MM due to specialty pharmacy unwind, highlighting uneven near-term momentum. With interest expense set to rise in 2027, R&D expenses expected to increase mid-high-single digits, and US drug-pricing and tariff pressures lingering, investor confidence could weaken if key Phase 3 readouts or launches disappoint.