Merck (MRK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Merck & Co is supported by a diversified commercial base anchored by Keytruda, which remains the main driver in oncology, while Gardasil, Winrevair, Capvaxive, and the animal health portfolio add meaningful breadth across human health and beyond. The outlook is constructive because recent Phase 3 successes for sacTMT, INT, tulisokibart, and islatravir/lenacapavir have materially improved the odds of sustained worldwide revenue growth between 2028 and 2032, even as the Keytruda loss of exclusivity in 2028-29 remains a major hurdle. Although earnings growth is expected to be muted as OpEx rises to fund launches and the late-stage pipeline, the company’s commercial execution and expanding pipeline should support a resilient growth runway.

Merck & Co is viewed negatively because its core growth engine, Keytruda, is approaching peak penetration in core tumor types, while U.S. trends are only moderate and international pricing pressure is intensifying through higher mandatory German rebates and price-volume agreements in high-spend areas. The company also faces shrinking legacy revenue from Januvia/Janumet as IRA pricing and generic competition accelerate erosion, while a $400 million IPR&D charge, rising R&D and SG&A, and higher interest expense from debt issued this year are likely to keep EPS growth muted and possibly near flat next year. Beyond the near-term financial drag, the stock is exposed to meaningful pipeline and patent risks, including setbacks in late-stage programs meant to replace Keytruda, which could pressure margins and valuation if commercialization disappoints or trial readouts underwhelm.