Molina Healthcare (MOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Molina Healthcare's performance demonstrates strong revenue growth in both Medicare and Medicaid sectors, with Medicare membership exceeding expectations and a managed care ratio (MCR) of 90.0% reflecting increased utilization in acute populations. Despite a higher Medicaid MCR of 91.3%, driven by rising utilization among members, the company has managed these pressures while securing contracts primarily in high-population states like California, New York, Texas, and Washington. Furthermore, the Marketplace segment showed significant improvement, with a 10.2% quarter-over-quarter increase in utilization and an MCR of 85.4%, indicating robust demand for Molina's health insurance products and suggesting positive momentum for future performance.

Molina Healthcare's outlook has significantly deteriorated, with expectations for marketplace trends worsening for 2025 and 2026, primarily due to heightened medical cost pressures impacting all business segments. The company's high dependence on Medicaid contracts in California, New York, Texas, and Washington—where over 50% of enrollees are concentrated—exposes it to state-specific risks and market volatility. Furthermore, Molina's lowered earnings per share (EPS) guidance for FY25 to no less than $19.00, down from previously higher estimates, reflects ongoing financial struggles exacerbated by elevated utilization pressures and anticipated market constraints.