MIRM Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mirum Pharmaceuticals is supported by a differentiated rare-disease franchise with three approved medicines—Livmarli, Cholbam, and Ctexli—anchored by Livmarli’s continued momentum, as 2Q Livmarli sales of $129M grew 13% quarter over quarter and bile acid medicines contributed $46M, while the company ended the quarter with $561M in cash. Its bullish case is further strengthened by brelovitug’s highly competitive HDV profile, including 48-week Phase 2b composite response deepening to 55% in both dosing arms, virologic response of 95% in both arms at Week 48, and a consistently clean safety profile with no Grade ≥3 adverse events or discontinuations in Phase 3, alongside management’s view that the HDV opportunity exceeds $750M+ in peak revenue potential. The outlook also benefits from a broad pipeline with multiple catalysts, including AZURE-1 and AZURE-4 supporting a planned NDA submission, volixibat now targeting an NDA submission in 1H27, and a large underpenetrated HDV market where Mirum estimates about 15,000 diagnosed, insured, and physician-managed patients versus true prevalence closer to 40,000 in the U.S. alone.

Mirum Pharmaceuticals is weighed down by a concentration of clinical and regulatory execution risk, as several pipeline assets still require additional studies in biliary atresia, PSC, and PBC before approvals can be pursued, and the FDA’s request for a Phase 3 trial of volixibat in PSC materially weakens confidence in the program’s registrational path. Commercially, Livmarli faces intensifying competition from Bylvay in ALGS and PFIC, which could pressure sales despite its existing approval footprint, while future uptake across newer indications remains uncertain because Mirum must prove clear differentiation in uncharted disease settings. Although the company ended 2Q26 with $561M in cash and reported $176M in net product sales with 2026 guidance raised to $680-$700M, it may still remain exposed to ongoing net losses, delayed launch timing, and the potential need for additional capital, all of which could dilute shareholder value and postpone durable profitability.