MH Stock Forecast & Price Target

McGraw Hill Inc. is poised for robust growth, with projected recurring revenue expected to rise to $1,504-$1,524 million, up from prior estimates, reflecting a positive trajectory in its financial performance. In the higher education segment, enrollment showed a significant year-over-year increase of 2.4%, further supported by McGraw Hill's positioning in community colleges which experienced a 4.0% growth, indicating heightened demand for its adaptive digital learning solutions. Additionally, the company's upward revision in FY26 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2,031-$2,061 million underscores strong operational momentum, coupled with notable market share gains in both K-12 and Higher Education segments.

McGraw Hill's stock outlook is negatively impacted by declining enrollment trends, particularly within its Higher Education segment, which is more vulnerable to discretionary spending cuts compared to K-12 enrollment. Additionally, there are significant risks related to generative artificial intelligence disrupting existing product lines, lower capture rates in future procurement cycles, and potential changes in education funding that could adversely affect sales of K-12 products. Moreover, high workforce turnover and competitive pressures from Open Educational Resources and state-developed curricula could further undermine McGraw Hill's market positioning and financial performance.