MediWound (MDWD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MediWound is supported by a stronger near-term revenue bridge and multiple longer-term catalysts, with 2Q26 revenue of $3.1M and 1H26 revenue of $4.6M while management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $24-$26M, largely backed by BARDA-related revenue and a 10-year contract valued at up to $197M. The investment case is anchored by NexoBrid’s commercial momentum and expanding international endorsements, plus a manufacturing facility that remains on track for European regulatory clearance in 2H26 and FDA inspection in early 2027, which should support broader adoption. Longer term, EscharEx is the main value driver, with pivotal VLU top-line data expected in 2H27, a DFU study beginning in 2H26, and peak U.S. sales potential raised to $1.05B as the addressable market expands into pressure ulcers.

MediWound is constrained by persistent manufacturing and regulatory delays for NexoBrid, with EMA-requested facility modifications not expected to be completed until YE26 and regulatory approval now pushed into 2H27, leaving near-term supply dependent on at-risk production. Its commercial outlook is further weakened by poor EU reimbursement for NexoBrid in medium to severe burn wounds, which has already resulted in weak revenue and unprofitability, while material produced earlier this year was reclassified as R&D rather than commercial inventory. The bearish case is compounded by EscharEx, whose initial revenues are now pushed into 2028, and by execution risk in P3, where failure to show adequate efficacy would likely pressure adoption and undermine the pipeline’s value.