Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. demonstrates a strong outlook driven by the impressive efficacy of its medication, Rezdiffra, which has successfully shifted approximately two-thirds of patients with compensated cirrhosis due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) to lower risk categories. Furthermore, real-world data indicates higher than expected adherence and persistence among patients, suggesting that the quality of life improvements seen during clinical trials have a tangible impact in routine care, thus enhancing the drug's value proposition. As a result, revenue projections for Rezdiffra have been raised to an estimated $7.1 billion by 2035, reflecting a positive trend in market penetration and patient outcomes.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals faces significant risks that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock, primarily stemming from concerns regarding future revenue growth and competitive pressures. Expectations for lower peak sales are heightened by potential competition, lack of support from the medical community, and third-party payers, coupled with anticipated declines in revenue during 1Q26 due to market dynamics and increased contracting complexities. Additionally, critical uncertainties related to regulatory approvals, clinical trial outcomes, and operational funding pose substantial risks that could hinder the company's growth trajectory in the MASH therapeutics market.