Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. has demonstrated robust therapeutic efficacy with its medication Rezdiffra, effectively shifting approximately two-thirds of patients with compensated cirrhosis of the liver (CSPH) to lower risk categories, thereby affirming its clinical utility in treating metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). The company has also observed a strong real-world adherence and persistence rate among patients, attributed to significant improvements in Health Related Quality of Life (HRQL) scores, which are sustained over the long term. With an optimistic outlook on market penetration in F2/F3 patients and projected revenues reaching $7.1 billion by 2035, Madrigal's strategies appear well-aligned to capitalize on the high unmet medical needs within the MASH patient population.

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals faces significant risks that could undermine its stock performance, including potential lower-than-expected peak sales due to competition and a lack of support from healthcare prescribers and payers. The company may experience revenue fluctuations in 1Q26 due to first quarter dynamics and an increase in gross-to-net stemming from new contracting measures starting in January. Furthermore, critical uncertainties such as the need for FDA and EMA approvals, the possibility of clinical trial failures, delays in timelines, and challenges securing funding compound the negative outlook on the company’s financial health.