Moody's (MCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Moody's is projected to experience a strong second half of 2025, with anticipated revenue growth for Moody's Investors Service (MIS) increasing by 12% year-over-year to $1,100 million, surpassing consensus estimates significantly. The momentum in billed issuance, evidenced by a 23% year-over-year increase in August, coupled with robust high-yield issuance trends, signals a favorable growth outlook for both non-recurring and recurring revenues. Additionally, management is expected to raise its earnings per share guidance to a range of $14.10-$14.30, reflecting increased confidence in capital markets activity and overall business trends.

The analysis indicates a negative outlook for Moody's stock primarily due to significant reliance on credit issuance, which constitutes approximately 61% of the company's revenue and 76% of its adjusted operating income; any downturn in credit markets adversely affects its financial performance. Furthermore, the recent slowdown in growth for Moody's Analytics and the challenges arising from the strategic termination of partnerships have contributed to lower revenue projections, compounded by unfavorable market dynamics that impact debt securities volume. Additionally, the potential risks from increased competition, declining demand for key offerings, and the pressures faced during acquisitions further exacerbate the uncertainty surrounding Moody's financial stability and future profitability.