Malibu Boats (MBUU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Malibu Boats has demonstrated a robust financial performance, as evidenced by a significant increase in 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA to $19.7 million from a loss of $4.1 million the prior year, coupled with a notable expansion in EBITDA margin by 1,210 basis points year-over-year to 9.5%. The company's Malibu segment saw a remarkable 114% year-over-year increase in net sales to $80.3 million, driven by rising unit volumes that increased by 40% year-over-year, reflecting a strong recovery from previous de-stocking activities. Additionally, overall gross margin improved by 790 basis points to 15.8%, supported by a favorable model mix and decreased promotional activities across all segments, further solidifying the company's competitive position in the market.

Malibu Boats's stock outlook is negatively impacted by a combination of challenging market conditions and lower-than-expected financial guidance, with the company projecting a decline in fiscal year 2026 sales by a mid-single-digit percentage and an adjusted EBITDA margin significantly below market expectations. The Saltwater Fishing segment has already experienced a troubling 9.3% year-over-year decrease in unit volumes, which reflects broader demand weakness in large-ticket discretionary items, exacerbated by factors such as declining consumer confidence and potential financing restrictions. Additionally, the company faces significant ongoing risks from adverse weather effects and seasonal demand fluctuations, which could further hinder its performance in the face of an anticipated cyclical downturn in economic growth.