Malibu Boats (MBUU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Malibu Boats demonstrated impressive financial growth, with 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA reaching $19.7 million, a significant turnaround from the $(4.1 million) loss in the previous year, and an increased EBITDA margin of 9.5%, reflecting a year-over-year improvement of 1,210 basis points. The Malibu segment experienced a remarkable year-over-year surge in unit volumes, rising by 78.7% to 570 units, which contributed to a substantial increase in net sales for the segment, up 114% to $80.3 million. Additionally, the overall gross margin expanded to 15.8%, a notable increase of 790 basis points year-over-year, driven by reduced promotional activity and a favorable mix toward higher-margin models.

Malibu Boats is facing a challenging outlook as it anticipates a decline in retail activity and lower-than-expected margins, with adjusted EBITDA margin guidance significantly lower than market expectations at 3-5% versus 7.9%. The company is grappling with a year-over-year decrease in unit volumes across key segments, including a 9.3% decline in the Saltwater Fishing segment and an 11.4% drop for Cobalt boats, indicating weakened demand in its core markets. Additionally, external factors such as declining consumer confidence, financing restrictions, and adverse weather conditions pose substantial downside risks to the company's performance going forward.