Malibu Boats (MBUU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Malibu Boats reported a significant improvement in its financial performance, achieving an Adjusted EBITDA of $21.3 million in 4Q25, a turnaround from a loss of $4.1 million the previous year, alongside a notable increase in the Adjusted EBITDA margin to 9.5%. Unit volumes within the Malibu segment surged by 78.7% year-over-year, with net sales from this segment escalating by 114.0% to $80.3 million, reflecting a recovery from prior year's de-stocking and strengthening consumer demand. The company's gross margin also improved to 15.8%, up 790 basis points year-over-year, bolstered by a favorable model mix and reduced promotional activities, positioning Malibu Boats strongly in the market for future growth.

Malibu Boats exhibits a negative outlook primarily due to anticipated declines in retail activity, projecting a decrease in unit volumes across key segments and a significant sales decline of approximately 10% year-over-year for the upcoming fiscal quarter. Additionally, the company's revised guidance for FY26 suggests flat to marginally decreasing net sales, alongside an adjusted EBITDA margin forecast of only 8%-9%, which falls short of market expectations. Coupled with potential macroeconomic pressures impacting consumer confidence and discretionary spending, these factors raise concerns about the company's financial stability and growth prospects moving forward.