MBLY Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mobileye Global is positioned for stronger fundamentals because its core ADAS franchise is reaccelerating, with Q2 2026 revenue of $508.0 million, gross profit of $235.0 million, 46.0% margin, and adjusted EPS of $0.19 versus $0.06 consensus, while Surround ADAS shipments rose 3% to 10.0 million units. Its moat is widening through premium content shifts and design wins, including Stellantis Cloud-Enhanced ADAS and an eight-year revenue pipeline of $24.5 billion, while new R&D and tax laws are expected to sustainably lift profitability and help NOPAT swing toward a projected $187.9 million gain. Beyond the core business, the company has multiple self-funded growth vectors in robotaxi and Physical AI, supported by $1.311 billion of cash, on-schedule Mentee progress, and a path for Return on Capital to turn positive for the first time.

Mobileye Global is facing a weak fundamental setup because profitability remains deeply negative, with ROC deteriorating from -2.37% to -3.23% over the LTM and Economic Profit still a $1.36 billion loss, even as LTM revenue reached $2.02 billion. Although management expects ROC to turn positive at 2.25% over the NTM and revenue growth to accelerate to 10.79%, the outlook is offset by expected lower SuperVision shipments in 2H, slipping ramps for SuperVision, Chauffeur, and Drive, and advanced volumes from Porsche and Audi now pushed into 2H27. The company also faces rising execution risk from a CEO transition, a more capital-intensive pivot away from an asset-lite model, and heavy ongoing R&D and AI spending that may pressure near-/medium-term returns despite the Israel R&D Law benefit.