Marriott (MAR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Marriott International's robust pipeline of approximately 610,000 rooms, with over half located in international markets, supports a positive outlook due to historical trends showing higher RevPAR growth in these regions compared to the U.S. and Canada. The company has also recorded notable RevPAR growth, increasing by 1.9% globally, with international RevPAR rising by 6%, while leisure transient RevPAR grew by 2%. Furthermore, an optimistic adjustment to the EBITDA multiple for managed and franchised fees, increasing to 18x, reflects confidence in better-than-expected net rooms growth for 2026, alongside guided worldwide RevPAR growth of 1.5-2.5%.

Marriott International's 2026 guidance for Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) and Net Rooms Growth (NRG) has softened, aligning closely with market expectations but highlighting a lack of significant upward momentum. The company faces considerable headwinds from geopolitical tensions, inflation, and policy uncertainties, which are anticipated to dampen overall lodging demand. Furthermore, when compared to other franchise businesses, Marriott's valuation appears more expensive based on EBITDA multiples and projected EBITDA growth, raising concerns about its long-term financial performance amid the risk of a potential macroeconomic recession.