Marriott (MAR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Marriott International reported fees of $1,400 million and EBITDA of $1,415 million, both surpassing BMO estimates, highlighting the company's strong financial performance driven by higher profits from incentive management fees and owned & leased properties. The growth in group booking pace for 2026 to 8% from 7% at the end of the first quarter indicates sustained demand for group travel that extends beyond 2025. Additionally, the company experienced a 5.5% year-over-year increase in pipeline/signings, with significant contributions from international markets and luxury segments, underscoring robust growth potential for Marriott's diverse brand portfolio.

Marriott International is experiencing a significant decline in government-related revenue per available room (RevPAR), which fell by 17% year-over-year in the second quarter, indicating potential challenges in key revenue streams. The company's reliance on managed and franchised properties, which constitute 98% of its total rooms, may lead to vulnerabilities given that substantial portions of its pipeline include rooms under construction, accounting for 40% of total development. Furthermore, with an upward pressure on interest rates impacting development, Marriott may face difficulties achieving organic growth rates of 5% over the coming years, suggesting a challenging financial outlook.