LUNR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Intuitive Machines is supported by a backlog that rose to about $1.8B in Q2, with management targeting roughly 25%-30% of that to convert into FY26 revenue and reiterating FY26 guidance of $900M-$1B plus positive adjusted EBITDA. Its outlook is strengthened by $920M of Q2 awards, $300M more in early Q3, and a $600M+ commercial GEO satellite contract, while national security revenue climbed from 3% in Q2/25 to 30% in Q2/26, signaling growing diversification and customer validation. Strategic advance investment in inventory and capacity has already helped win programs like three GEO satellites and CS-8, and the accelerated NSNS deployment path could unlock higher-margin cislunar services and support a multibillion-dollar pipeline across lunar, defense, and commercial missions.

Intuitive Machines is viewed negatively because its Q2/26 beat in growth did not translate into execution quality, as revenue of $206M and an Adj. EBITDA loss of ($13.8M) still missed estimates by about 14% and 345%, while delays and an EAC on the NSNS contract underscored program risk. The company also burned $59.8M from operations and spent $24.1M on capex, and operating losses widened as R&D and SG&A rose on heavier headcount, stock-based compensation, and the Lanteris acquisition. Although backlog reached a record $1.8B, the business remains exposed to NASA budget pressure, contract concentration, launch delays, supply-chain issues, and a limited operating history that makes sustained profitability uncertain.