LUNR Stock Forecast & Price Target

Intuitive Machines is supported by a rapidly expanding contracted backlog that reached about $1.8B as of Q2, with $920M of awards in Q2 and another $300M signed early in Q3, giving strong visibility into FY26 revenue. Management reiterated FY26 midpoint revenue of $950M and positive Adj. EBITDA, implying about 352% growth versus FY25, while more than $390M of 1H26 revenue and an expected $500M+ in 2H26 suggest the business is scaling quickly. The outlook is further strengthened by execution on CLPS lunar missions, NSNS deployment, and national security and commercial GEO wins, including a $600M+ three-satellite contract and the AMDT3 award, while strategic inventory investments improve win rates and accelerate conversion to revenue.

Intuitive Machines is viewed negatively because its business is heavily exposed to NASA and other U.S. government contracts, so any budget cuts, procurement shifts, or reduced demand could quickly pressure revenue. Its early-stage profile, history of operating losses, and possible need to raise additional capital raise execution and financing risk, while inflation, supply chain shortages, and reliance on third-party suppliers and launch providers can further squeeze margins and delay deliveries. Competitive threats from SpaceX Lunar Starship, peers, and an emerging market that may not develop as expected, combined with ~73% of voting power held by Class C shares, add both strategic and governance risks.