Landstar System (LSTR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Landstar System has demonstrated a positive trend in its heavy-haul segment, which now constitutes 38% of total segment revenue and has experienced a 17% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by demand from AI infrastructure, energy, and project-related freight. Additionally, the company's improvement in Business Capacity Owner (BCO) retention rates and recruitment of new carriers indicates a strengthening competitive position within the logistics market, despite a subdued rate environment. Furthermore, the stabilization in overall truck revenue per load and the first sequential growth in BCO truck count since early 2022 reflect favorable operational trends that support a constructive outlook for Landstar’s business performance.

Landstar System's outlook is impacted negatively by a ~3% year-over-year decline in truckloads for October, along with flat revenue per load, suggesting demand weakness and an overall dip in freight volumes. The company's reported adjustment in EPS to $1.22 for 3Q25 fell short of expectations, largely due to a decrease in Truck Transportation revenue and a significant reduction in the contribution margin driven by lower utilization rates. Furthermore, the potential continuation of the freight recession into 2025 and 2026 poses a risk to operating income and variable contribution, creating a challenging environment for future financial performance.