LION Stock Forecast & Price Target

Lionsgate Studios Corp has demonstrated a significant growth trajectory, with trailing twelve-month library revenues reaching $1 billion—an increase from $892 million the previous year—indicating strong demand for its content portfolio. The company's emphasis on television production has enhanced its library contribution from 15% to approximately 30% over the past decade, leading to improved overall financial performance and expectations of EBITDA growth to $336 million, buoyed by international licensing revenue for future film releases. Furthermore, a notable 31% sequential increase in the backlog to $1.6 billion, primarily from television commitments, along with substantial revenue recovery to $3.2 billion in fiscal 2025 following resolution of industry disputes, underscores the studio's robust operational foundation and a favorable outlook for continued valuation improvement relative to other media entities.

Lionsgate Studios Corp reported a Fiscal 2025 OIBDA of $302 million, reflecting a 15% decrease from the previous year, primarily driven by underperformance in the Motion Picture Segment. The company's reliance on the STARZ platform is concerning, as over a third of its television studio revenue is derived from STARZ, and revenues from non-Starz television entities have remained stagnant since 2018. Additionally, a notable drop in theatrical releases and rising marketing costs have further pressured profitability, compounded by disappointing fiscal results attributed to poor performance during the second quarter and a shift in consumer viewing habits impacting home entertainment revenue.