Centrus Energy (LEU) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Centrus Energy is well positioned because it is the only U.S. company with a pathway to commercial HALEU supply and the only NRC-licensed domestic producer with demonstrated HALEU output, having operated since 2023 and produced more than 1,900 kg ahead of schedule. Its ~$3.9 billion backlog, including ~$3.1 billion in LEU and about $0.8 billion in Technical Solutions, provides unusually long revenue visibility while a $900 million DOE task order and $3.4 billion in congressional appropriations support the Piketon scale-up. With gross margin expected to expand from ~26.2% in CY25 to ~35.3% in CY32E and SWU pricing near $200 and above, the company’s mix shift toward scarce, premium-priced domestic fuel strengthens the fundamental case.

Centrus Energy is burdened by a weak risk-reward profile because its LEU business still depends on third-party supply, including greater than 51% reliance on Russian TENEX through 2027, while U.S. enrichment capacity remains absent and supply chains are geopolitically fragile. The company is also in the early innings of a multi-billion-dollar capex cycle, yet the funding path to commercialization is not fully de-risked, with roughly $1B raised via ATM last year and another ~$500M in September still leaving meaningful execution, licensing, and construction uncertainty. With management targeting 3.5M SWU capacity but facing first-of-a-kind build risk, potential cost overruns at Piketon, and the possibility of normalized SWU pricing, the stock appears vulnerable if the transition from broker to domestic enricher stalls.