Joby Aviation (JOBY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Joby Aviation is viewed favorably because its eVTOL platform targets a large, premium urban mobility market with clear efficiency advantages, while partnerships and FAA eIPP progress improve the path toward commercial passenger service. The outlook is also supported by sharply expanding fundamentals, with revenues projected to rise from $122M in 2026 to $14.2B in 2036, gross margins moving from 25% to above 45% by 2029, and adjusted EBITDA turning positive at over $300M in 2030 before reaching $7B in 2036. Despite execution and certification risks, the company’s early market leadership, app-based booking strategy, and evidence of passenger demand through Blade and demonstration flights underpin a bullish long-term view.

Joby Aviation is facing significant execution risk because management highlighted early production-ramp challenges and stopped short of reaffirming its prior goal of building 4 aircraft per month in 2027, implying that commercialization may be slower and less certain than hoped. The bearish view is further reinforced by the likelihood of delayed regulatory approval, which could dampen enthusiasm for eVTOL adoption in urban travel and postpone Joby’s UAM revenue opportunity. In addition, a high-profile industry safety event could trigger a certification timing reset, while the reduced FY27 production estimate and flatter ramp underscore limited near-term visibility and a higher margin of error.