Gartner (IT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Gartner is supported by a large, recurring subscription model with most contracts spanning multiple years, strong client retention, and wallet retention that typically adds about 4% annual growth before new business. Management’s strategic transformation is improving engagement, with client engagement up 140 bps year over year in 2Q26 and conference attendance rebounding double digits, while the company’s ~$200bn TAM and ~$5bn ACV suggest substantial room to expand. Financially, Gartner delivered $5,268m of CV in 1Q26, raised FY26E adj EBITDA to ~$1,545m with a 24.1% margin, and continues to generate strong free cash flow to fund buybacks and capital returns.

Gartner is facing a deteriorating demand backdrop as sales cycles in larger enterprises have elongated, purchase decisions are moving up to CFO approval, and macro-sensitive sectors are taking longer to close business. Its core research franchise, which generates about 80% of revenue, is being pressured by weaker client spending, tariff-related caution, and decelerating contract value growth, while U.S. federal business has been a major drag, with 46% dollar retention YTD and nearly all contracts renewing in FY25. Management also lowered FY26E total revenue guidance to about $6,405m, while downside scenarios already assume roughly a 10% EPS reduction from government efficiency programs, slower CV growth, and macro slowdown, underscoring fundamental earnings risk.