International Paper (IP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

International Paper is benefiting from a stronger strategic and competitive position under Andy Silvernail’s leadership since Spring 2024, with management pursuing cost-reduction, reliability, and asset-optimization initiatives that should lift earnings power over time. Its core North American containerboard franchise looks increasingly attractive as industry capacity take-out since early 2025 tightens supply-demand dynamics, while box shipment volumes have outperformed the market for the third consecutive quarter and management sees 2026 volumes up ~2% versus flat industry growth. Valuation also supports the positive view, with the stock around ~7.3x on 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $3.25 billion and less than 6x EV/EBITDA on 2027 numbers, while the DS Smith acquisition expands its European presence and its focused, lower-cost footprint should support free cash flow.

International Paper is facing a deteriorating fundamental setup as it cut 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.2-3.5 billion from $3.5-3.7 billion after a 1Q miss and a weak 2Q outlook, with Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $677 million below consensus. Demand for corrugated packaging remains volatile and economically sensitive, and box demand has weakened again since Feb of 2025 even as higher costs, weaker volumes, and transition expenses weigh on margins. The company also faces new containerboard supply in North America and Europe, while the early 2025 DS Smith acquisition and planned de-merger until 2027 add execution risk and a potential investor overhang.