International Paper (IP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

International Paper is viewed positively because it is improving its competitive position through a focused transformation, including the sale of Global Cellulose Fibers, the DS Smith-driven European presence, and asset rationalization that is moving operations down the cost curve. Its North America box shipments have outperformed the industry for the third consecutive quarter, management sees volumes in 2026 up ~2% versus flat for the industry, and the company still sees a path to $5 billion of EBITDA in 2027. The stock’s appeal is further supported by tighter containerboard supply-demand conditions, a sizeable North American corrugated footprint, and valuation that appears modest at about 7.3x 2026 adjusted EBITDA and less than 6x EV/EBITDA on 2027 numbers.

International Paper is facing a weaker fundamental setup after cutting 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $3.2-3.5 billion from $3.5-3.7 billion, with 1Q adjusted EBITDA of $677 million below consensus and 2Q guidance of $520-570 million well below expectations. Demand remains cyclical and has softened again since Feb. of 2025, while higher costs, weaker volumes, and transition costs are offsetting better pricing. The outlook is also pressured by new containerboard supply in North America and Europe, plus uncertainty around the DS Smith acquisition and planned de-merger, which could weigh on sentiment until 2027.