Imperial Oil (IMO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Imperial Oil Ltd has demonstrated a robust financial performance, highlighted by a stable common share count of 509 million shares and a notable 20% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.72 per share, reflecting strong cash flow generation. The company's upgrader utilization has improved significantly, averaging 97% in 2024, compared to 94% in 2023, driven by efficient bi-directional pipelines that enhance operational efficiency. Additionally, the company's enterprise value increased by 18%, amounting to $54.6 billion as of June 30, 2025, indicating strong market confidence and effective management strategies.

Imperial Oil Ltd has experienced a reduction in its common share count by approximately 31% since the end of 2020, largely supported by $5.5 billion in share repurchases, while its dividend has increased significantly, more than tripling to $2.88 per share. However, the company's low capital investment of $2 billion in contrast to its high upstream production of about 445,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (99% oil) raises concerns about its ability to sustain long-term growth. Additionally, the Cold Lake segment's natural decline rate of approximately 7% could challenge production levels, as excess steam capacity is being redeployed rather than indicating new growth initiatives.