Hershey (HSY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hershey's stock outlook remains positive due to a projected pricing increase of 5%-6% for FY25, reflecting a robust pricing strategy in the face of market conditions. The company's organic sales saw a notable rise of 6% in the third quarter, primarily driven by strong growth in key categories and a 12% increase in retail sales for its everyday business. Furthermore, Hershey demonstrated effective market share gains, particularly in the NA Confectionery and NA Salty Snacks divisions, with respective organic sales increases of 5% and 10%, highlighting the firm's competitive positioning in both domestic and international markets.

Hershey's financial outlook appears negative due to a significant 35% decline in operating profit coupled with a contraction of 860 basis points in the operating margin, now at 13.3%. The company forecasts a further decline in operating profit by nearly 39.5% for 4Q25, anticipating a 970 basis points margin decline, alongside a revised sales growth estimate of only 3%. Increased costs related to cocoa, unfavorable hedge timing, and tariff expenses are expected to exacerbate these challenges, with a projected gross margin decline of 900 basis points in 4Q25, contributing to a downward adjustment in the fiscal year 2025 earnings per share estimate to $5.95.