Hershey (HSY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hershey's has demonstrated robust organic sales growth of 6% in the third quarter, with increases driven by its everyday business gaining market share, particularly in the top five categories. The company is anticipating a price increase of 5%-6% for FY25, reflecting a solid pricing strategy that is likely to enhance revenue. Additionally, the growth in sales for diverse segments, including a 10% rise in NA Salty Snacks and a 12% increase in International, signifies a strong and expanding market presence beyond the domestic confectionery focus.

Hershey's financial outlook has shown significant deterioration as evidenced by a 35% decline in operating profit and an 860 basis point contraction in operating margin, now at 13.3%. The company has revised its sales growth expectations downward to 3% and projected a substantial decline in earnings per share (EPS) for FY25, estimating a decrease of 36.5% to $5.95 and a fourth-quarter EPS drop of nearly 50% to $1.35. Moreover, gross margins are expected to suffer further, anticipating a decline of over 900 basis points in Q4 2025 due to escalating cocoa costs, tariff expenses, and unfavorable hedge timing, contributing to an overall 680 basis point decline for the year.