Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a reported revenue increase of 17% year-over-year, reaching $1.341 billion, and significant margin improvements attributed to advantageous one-time effects from the Harley-Davidson Financial Services transaction. In the third quarter of 2025, total motorcycle shipments surged by 32.7% year-over-year, bolstered by a remarkable 61.9% increase in domestic shipments, which signals strong consumer demand and market position, particularly in the heavyweight segment. Looking ahead to 2026, continued outperformance is anticipated from lower-priced motorcycles, with notable gains in Softail retail sales, suggesting a positive trajectory for the company's overall performance and market competitiveness.

Harley-Davidson has experienced a significant decline in revenue, primarily attributed to a 22.6% decrease in motorcycle shipments, which negatively impacted gross profit margins, falling to 28.6% in 2Q25 and further declining to 26.4% in 3Q25. The company's consolidated operating margin also saw a substantial decline of 830 basis points year-over-year, dropping to 8.6%, influenced by unfavorable operating leverage alongside increased tariff costs and higher operating expenses. Additionally, global retail sales continued to show negative trends, with a 6.0% year-over-year decline in 3Q25, further exacerbating the financial challenges facing the brand.