
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
Harley-Davidson is viewed positively because U.S. retail sales rose 3% Y/Y, helped by stronger demand for redesigned Trike, Touring, Sport, and Adventure Touring models, while the new Deadwood bikes and upcoming lower-priced Sportster and Sprint should broaden appeal to younger and entry-level riders. The dealer network is also improving, with North America inventory down 15% Y/Y and management targeting a doubling of dealer profitability in 2026 and again by 2029, which should strengthen retail execution, marketing, and P&A conversion. Confidence is further supported by the Back to Bricks strategy, the increase in 2026 guidance, and the path to $350M+ of HDMC EBITDA in 2027 backed by at least $150M of annualized fixed cost reductions and growth in higher-margin categories.
Bears say
Harley-Davidson is facing a difficult fundamental backdrop because the heavyweight motorcycle market is highly competitive, with shifting styling preferences, tighter safety and emissions rules, and rivals able to pressure pricing through technology, reliability, and product features. Its reliance on third-party suppliers and a dealer-led wholesale model adds execution risk from cost inflation, component shortages, and weak retail adaptation, while new launches may not translate into unit growth. Financial services also increase downside through credit risk tied to retail and wholesale receivables, and global sales are exposed to foreign exchange swings that can compress revenue and margin.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Harley-Davidson and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
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