Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson is viewed positively because its recent 2Q26 results came in above Street expectations and management raised 2026 guidance, while the “Back to the Bricks” strategy is already improving dealer profitability, trust, and network sentiment after years of underperformance. The operating backdrop also looks healthier, with 1Q26 North America retail up 14% y/y, global retail up 8% y/y, global dealer inventory down 22% y/y, and 2Q26 U.S. retail sales up 3% y/y, supported by strength in redesigned Trike models, Touring, Sport, and Adventure Touring categories. Longer term, the company’s push into lower-ASP bikes such as the Sprint and Sportster, plus the Deadwood and Pan America franchises and the captive financial services arm, should broaden access to younger riders, improve lifetime customer value through P&A and financing, and help support a more durable earnings recovery into 2027 and beyond.

Harley-Davidson is facing a fundamentally challenged outlook because its core motorcycle business remains exposed to persistent tariff costs of $75M-$90M in FY26, with only limited tariff recoveries to offset the gross impact, while gross margin in 2Q26 still fell 110bp y/y to 27.5% despite a 6% revenue increase to $1,104M. Although 2Q26 EPS of $0.75 beat consensus and domestic retail sales rose 3.3% to 27,574 units, international retail sales declined 4.2% and Adventure Touring shipments fell 4.0%, underscoring uneven demand and dependence on a narrow heavyweight market that the company captured around 34% of domestically in 2025. The mixed operating profile is further pressured by LiveWire’s ongoing operating loss of ($70M)-($80M), continued capital investment needs of $175M-$200M in FY26, and a financial services arm that, while profitable with 18.5% segment operating margin and $117M of revenue in 2Q26, is not large enough to fully offset the structural margin and execution risks weighing on the overall business.