Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson demonstrated impressive financial performance with a revenue increase of 17% year-over-year, reaching $1.34 billion and experiencing heightened margins attributed to favorable impacts from a recent HDFS transaction. In 2024, the company secured a dominant 37% share of the heavyweight domestic motorcycle market, with notable growth in retail sales across various segments, including a 9% increase in Softail retail sales in North America. Additionally, total motorcycle shipments surged by 32.7% year-over-year, with the Adventure Touring category showing exceptional growth of 102.5%, indicating robust demand and a strategic alignment to current market dynamics.

Harley-Davidson's financial performance has been negatively impacted by a significant 22.6% decrease in motorcycle sales and a corresponding decline in revenue, indicating ongoing challenges in the company's supply chain and market demand. Additionally, the gross profit margins have deteriorated, with a drop to 28.6% in 2Q25 and further to 26.4% in 3Q25, affected by unfavorable operating leverage, increased tariff costs, and foreign exchange challenges. Overall, the consolidated operating margin fell significantly by 830 basis points year-over-year to 8.6%, highlighting the strain on the company's profitability amidst rising operational costs.