Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson has demonstrated a robust financial performance with revenues reaching $1,341 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17%, alongside a significant rise in margins due to one-time impacts from HDFS transactions. The company has reported a notable increase in motorcycle shipments, with total shipments up 32.7% year-over-year, particularly highlighting a 42.2% rise in touring shipments and a remarkable 102.5% growth in adventure touring shipments. Looking ahead, there is optimism for continued positive momentum, particularly with lower-ASP bikes and improving retail sales trends in North America, which are expected to align better with current demand dynamics.

The analysis of Harley-Davidson's financial performance reveals a concerning trend, marked by a significant 22.6% decrease in motorcycle sales, which led to a notable decline in revenue and gross profit margins. In particular, the gross profit margin for the second quarter of 2025 fell to 28.6%, a reduction of 350 basis points year-over-year, primarily attributed to lower sales volumes and unfavorable operating leverage, further exacerbated by rising tariff costs and foreign exchange impacts. Additionally, the consolidated operating margin decreased by 830 basis points to 8.6%, reflecting higher operating expenses and lower net interest income, contributing to a continued negative outlook for the company's financial health.