Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson reported a 17% year-over-year increase in revenues, totaling $1,341 million, with a significant boost in margins attributed to a favorable one-time transaction from Harley-Davidson Financial Services, resulting in higher-than-expected earnings per share. In the third quarter of 2025, total motorcycle shipments surged by 32.7% year-over-year, driven primarily by a staggering 61.9% increase in domestic shipments, indicating a strong recovery in the North American market. Additionally, positive sales trends were noted in various motorcycle categories, particularly with Adventure Touring models showing a remarkable 102.5% increase, suggesting a robust demand outlook and a healthier, more predictable pace of shipments aligned with market dynamics.

Harley-Davidson has experienced a significant decline in revenue, primarily attributed to a 22.6% decrease in HDMC sales, which has led to reduced motorcycle shipments. The company's gross profit margin has also deteriorated, with figures for both 2Q25 and 3Q25 dropping to 28.6% and 26.4%, respectively, due to negative operating leverage, increased tariff costs, and unfavorable foreign exchange impacts. Additionally, the consolidated operating margin fell sharply by 830 basis points year-over-year to 8.6%, reflecting adverse financial conditions exacerbated by higher operating expenses and lower net interest income.