Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Harley-Davidson's financial performance reflects significant growth, with a revenue increase of 17% year-over-year to $1.34 billion and a notable rise in margins due to favorable one-time effects from the Harley-Davidson Financial Services transaction. The company showcased impressive unit sales, with a 32.7% year-on-year increase in total motorcycle shipments and a substantial 61.9% rise in domestic shipments, indicating strong demand in key markets. Anticipated continued outperformance in lower-ASP bikes and positive trends in retail sales, especially within non-core segments, signal a promising outlook for sustained growth moving forward.

Harley-Davidson's recent financial performance exhibits significant challenges, as evidenced by a 22.6% decline in HDMC sales and negative retail sales trends, with global retail sales down 6.0% year-over-year in 3Q25. The company's gross profit margin has contracted sharply, with a decrease to 26.4% in 3Q25, adversely impacted by unfavorable operating leverage, increased tariff costs, and foreign exchange effects. Furthermore, the consolidated operating margin has experienced a notable decline of 830 basis points year-over-year to 8.6%, indicating ongoing operational difficulties amid rising costs and diminishing sales volumes.