HLMN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hillman Solutions Corp has demonstrated a modest improvement in customer traffic for the early months of 3Q25, with total daily traffic up by 0.1% and weekend traffic by 0.4%, a notable increase from the declines observed in 2Q25. The company's performance is further supported by strong results from its Hardware and Protective Solutions segments, as well as positive trends in key customer metrics for major retailers, indicating a healthy sales acceleration. Additionally, Hillman's focus on growth through potential mergers and acquisitions in the LBM channel highlights its strategic positioning for future revenue enhancement, reinforcing a confident outlook for the remainder of the year.

Hillman Solutions Corp faces significant risks that contribute to a negative outlook on its stock. The company's high net leverage ratio of 4.1x raises concerns regarding its ability to service debt, potentially limiting cash flow for strategic investments and acquisitions, ultimately hindering growth. Additionally, declining repair and remodel activity threatens to depress sales, further compounded by the risk of increased costs that the company may be unable to pass on to customers, significantly impacting overall financial performance.