HCC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Warrior Met Coal Inc. has raised its 2025 coal sales guidance by approximately 6%, adjusting the midpoint to 9.15 million tons and similarly increasing production targets by 6% to a midpoint of 8.7 million tons. This positive outlook is bolstered by expectations for increased sales in the second half of 2025, indicating robust demand in a challenging environment. Additionally, the company has successfully reduced its cost guidance, contributing to a stronger financial position and enhanced profitability prospects.

Warrior Met Coal has faced a significant decline in price realization, now generating approximately 80% of expected pricing, which raises concerns about revenue stability. Additionally, the company’s valuations are heavily dependent on the volatile Pacific Basin benchmark export price for met coal, which introduces substantial uncertainty into future earnings projections. The potential for met coal prices to decline below forecasts presents a tangible risk to the company’s financial performance, contributing to a negative outlook on the stock.