HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare demonstrated robust growth in its third-quarter financials, highlighted by a 9.2% increase in same-facility revenue, driven by a 2.4% rise in adjusted admissions and a significant uptick of 7.1% in inpatient revenue per admission year-over-year. The organization also experienced strong performance across its payer mix, contributing to increased revenue from Medicare, which rose by 3.4% year-over-year, and commercial admissions that grew by 3.7%. Management’s upward revision of adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $15.25 to $15.65 billion reflects a positive outlook, with half of this increase attributed to core operational improvements.

HCA Healthcare's financial position is impacted by an elevated debt level, as evidenced by a total debt to LTM EBITDA ratio of 2.9x, which remains concerning despite a slight sequential decline. The company's growth estimates for 2026 have been adjusted to reflect a 5% headwind, resulting in a tempered projection of $16.052 billion, which is below the lower end of the company's long-term growth outlook. Additionally, a moderation of the target enterprise multiple from 9.5x to 9.25x indicates a cautious sentiment towards future earnings potential amidst an uncertain economic landscape.