HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare has demonstrated robust operational performance, with a notable 3Q25 same-facility inpatient revenue per admission growth of 7.1% year-over-year, fueled by a strong payer mix and the increased volume of Medicare Advantage and commercial admissions. The company reported a solid 3Q25 same-facility revenue growth of 9.2%, supported by a 2.4% rise in adjusted admissions and a significant rebound in outpatient surgical procedures, indicating improved patient flow and service utilization. Management's proactive approach has led to an upward revision of the 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $15.25-15.65 billion, reflecting both core operational strength and favorable adjustments in supplemental payments.

HCA Healthcare's financial outlook appears cautious due to a combination of factors, including a conservative projection of 3.9% growth in 2026, which falls below the company's long-term growth targets. The total debt to last twelve months (LTM) EBITDA ratio, while slightly improved at 2.9x, remains a focal concern, particularly as the firm adjusts its leverage range downward to 2.75x-3.75x amidst a challenging economic environment. Additionally, a noted headwind of 5% to earnings estimates, combined with anticipated multiple contractions, suggests that the company may struggle to maintain robust profitability moving forward.