HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare demonstrated robust financial performance, with a 3Q25 same-facility revenue increase of 9.2% driven by a 2.4% growth in adjusted admissions and a notable rise in revenue per admission of 7.1% year-over-year. The company's payer mix showed strength, particularly with Medicare and Commercial admissions contributing positively, highlighting an overall favorable growth trajectory in key patient demographics. Furthermore, HCA's management exhibited confidence in future performance by raising its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $450 million, signaling positive operational momentum and ongoing financial strength.

HCA Healthcare's financial outlook is negatively impacted by a recent adjustment in earnings estimates, projecting a 5% headwind for 2026, which is compounded by anticipated multiple contraction to 8.75x. The firm's operating expenses have increased, with other operating expenses noted at 21.7%, exceeding prior estimates and reflecting challenges in managing costs. Additionally, despite a slight decline in the total debt to LTM EBITDA ratio to 2.9x, the lowered target enterprise multiple to 9.25x signals broader concerns about future growth potential, particularly as the firm adjusts its growth expectations down to 3.9%, falling short of long-term targets.