HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare demonstrates strong financial flexibility, concluding the year with $1.04 billion in cash and $5.78 billion available under its credit facilities, which supports its capacity for strategic investments and capital expenditures. The company is poised for solid EBITDA growth of approximately 7.6% and has increased its capital expenditures to $5.0-$5.5 billion for 2026, aimed at enhancing its inpatient capacity and expanding its outpatient facilities. Additionally, HCA recorded a notable improvement in EBITDA margins, which surpassed expectations by 60 basis points, reflecting effective management strategies and a focus on high-acuity programs driving operational efficiency.

HCA Healthcare is facing significant headwinds, including lower-than-expected revenue per adjusted admission, which registered growth of only 2.9% compared to projected figures of 3.8% and 4.0%. The expectation of a 30% decline in care utilization, particularly among the uninsured population, further compounds concerns, as does a projected $250 million to $450 million drop in DPP net benefits for 2026 due to various factors including paused programs and payment adjustments. Additionally, the company's forecasted adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is between $15.55 billion and $16.45 billion, reflecting two notable challenges that could negatively impact overall financial performance.